# 28. Historical manipulation ## 28.5. Methodology/Refinements/Sub-species ### 28.5.1. Hindsight bias This is also known as the "I knew-it-all-along" effect or "creeping determinism". It has been redefined in recent years as the theory of black swan events, a metaphor that describes an event that is a surprise (to the observer), has a major effect, and after the fact is often inappropriately rationalised with the benefit of hindsight. It is the technique of manipulation which attempts to show events that have already occurred as being more predictable than they were before they took place. It has a lot of potential applications for the manipulator and works at all levels: from personal manipulation right up to international politics. In the individual, hindsight bias is the tendency to construct one's memory after the fact (or interpret the meaning of something said in the past), according to currently known facts and one's current beliefs. It is also a form of self-delusion. In this way, one appears to make the past consistent with the present, and more predictable than it actually was. When it is used by a manipulator towards a victim or group, it is highly disorientating because it causes memory distortion, even in large groups where the recollection and reconstruction of an event, or the content of what actually happened, can lead to false conclusions. As a manipulative technique, "hindsight bias" is most potent because it creates serious practical and methodological problems to anyone trying to gainsay a statement where hindsight is quoted. There are plenty of cases where historians describe the outcomes of battles; physicians recall clinical trials and judicial systems very astutely attribute responsibility and the predictability of accidents, after the event. It is a potent tool when used by religious sects to demonstrate the validity of their propositions after the event, like the sexual revolution and the rate of divorce: "We warned you that this (the sexual revolution) would lead to chaos, evil and unhappiness (and divorce)." ***Parent:** [[Historical Manipulation]]*