# 50. Self-delusion - the manipulation of self ## 50.5. Methodology/Refinements/Sub-species ### 50.5.3. Confirmation bias, also referred to as self-reinforcement We all believe that our opinions are the result of years of rational, objective analysis. The reality is that our opinions are the result of years of making assumptions, paying attention only to information that confirms what we already believe, and ignoring information which challenges our preconceptions. Confirmation bias refers to a type of selective thinking, whereby we tend to only look for and notice that what confirms our beliefs, and to ignore, not look for, or undervalue the relevance, of what contradicts our beliefs. Mostly we don't even realise that we are involved in a kind of self-manipulation because we feel comfortable with our own value system. Our personal value system was evolved by us to explain the world. Undermining our own value system is psychologically disturbing. It may be catastrophically damaging to us, because it may create uncomfortable cognitive dissonances. Therefore, we have strong reasons to maintain our own core opinions, even against the most coldly accurate contradictions. In the case of such conflicts, we will likely find all kinds of alternatives to support our views, rather than re-examine our core opinions. Without confirmation bias, many conspiracy theories would fall apart. Did we really put a man on the moon? Is there really a God? Are we ruled by aliens? If you are personally looking for proof of any wacko theory, you can certainly find evidence for almost anything, if you set the standards of data quality to satisfy your own biases. That doesn't imply that there really are no conspiracies out there - it simply serves to illustrate that some conspiracy theories are just pure inventions, designed to confirm our existing moral biases, rather than us altering our moral biases based on an honest evaluation of the facts. Just because it is a conspiracy theory doesn't make it either right or wrong. It is just a theory. Just because we are paranoid doesn't mean that "they" are not after us! We need to keep an open mind and not allow ourselves to be manipulated in either direction.