# 19. Timing Games ## 19.5. Methodology/Refinements/Sub-species ### **19.5.2. The Planning Fallacy This is the tendency of people and organisations to underestimate how long they will need to complete a task, even when they have experience of similar tasks overrunning their schedule in previous projects. We can even say that there is a general tendency to deliberately underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future actions whilst at the same time overestimating the benefits of the same actions. According to this definition, the planning fallacy results in not only time overruns, but also cost overruns and benefit shortfalls. These represent possible rewards for a manipulator. For instance, a commercial contract can be so tightly priced that competitors may chase each other down an ever less profitable rabbit hole in bidding for the project. This can lead to the unfortunate situation where the hapless winning bidder can actually find himself losing money. The real winner is the company receiving the bids.